A buyer-side view on whether now is a good time to buy property in London: prices, rates, currency, stock levels and who the current market favours.
By Aldo Attanasio d’Aponte – September 10, 2026
Is now a good time to buy property in London?
For a buyer with capital, patience and a holding period measured in years rather than months, the current London market is a better place to buy than the one we had a decade ago. Prices in prime central London are well below their previous peak in real terms, there is more choice than there has been for years, and a serious buyer is a scarce and valuable thing. That is not the same as saying everything is cheap. It means the conditions favour the person paying, if they know how to use them.
What is the London market actually doing?
The honest summary is that prime central London has spent most of the last decade going sideways or gently down, while the cost of everything else has gone up. A house in Belgravia or Kensington that was fully priced in 2014 is, in nominal terms, worth roughly the same or a little less today. Adjust for inflation and the real fall is considerable. The domestic, needs-driven parts of the capital, the family-house markets from Hampstead down to Wandsworth and out to Richmond, have held up better, because people need to live somewhere near schools and offices whether or not the tax regime suits them.
Transaction numbers are low. That is the detail most commentary misses. Fewer homes are changing hands, but more are being offered, so stock on the market has been rising even as prices soften. A slow market with more supply than buyers is, by definition, a buyer’s market. Sellers who came to the market a year ago at an ambitious figure are now on their second or third price reduction, and their agents know it.
Why does a cooler market help the buyer?
In a rising market, buyers behave badly. They compete, they skip the survey, they pay the asking price on the first day because someone else might. I have watched clients in 2013 and 2014 pay for the privilege of being in a hurry, and I have watched some of those same properties come back to market at less a few years later.
In a quiet market the pressures reverse. You can look at fifteen properties instead of five. You can take a week to think about a house instead of an hour. You can commission a proper building survey, get the lease read properly, understand the service charge history and the state of the roof, and then make an offer that reflects what you have found rather than what the brochure says. A vendor who has been on the market for nine months listens to an evidence-based offer. A vendor who has been on the market for nine days does not.
The other advantage is negotiating power. When the pool of buyers is shallow, a buyer who is proceedable, with funds proven, a solicitor instructed and no chain, is worth a great deal to a seller. Our own average across acquisitions is 12% below asking, and that figure has been easier to achieve in the last few years than it was in the boom.
Do interest rates matter for prime London?
Less than the headlines suggest, but more than some buyers assume. Bank Rate has come down from its 2023 peak but remains far above the near-zero levels of the 2010s, and mortgage pricing reflects that. For a buyer using leverage, the monthly cost of a £3m loan is a very different number from what it was five years ago, and that has pushed some mortgage-dependent buyers out of the market or down a price band.
For a cash buyer, or a buyer whose private bank lends against a wider portfolio, higher rates are mostly good news. They have thinned the competition. The buyer who is unaffected by mortgage costs is negotiating against sellers who assume every buyer is stretched.
Currency is the other lever. Sterling has traded well below its 2014 levels against the dollar for most of the last decade. A buyer with dollars, or a currency pegged to them, is buying a London property that has fallen in sterling terms with a currency that has strengthened against sterling. The combined discount against 2014 is larger than either figure alone. Our Italian and continental clients, buying in euros, have a smaller advantage, but still a real one.
What is the case for waiting?
There is one, and it should be stated fairly. Prices could go lower. The tax position for overseas buyers has become less generous, with the end of the non-dom regime, the higher additional-property surcharge and the non-resident surcharge on stamp duty. Every buyer should know their all-in acquisition cost before they decide, and for a second home bought by a non-resident it can approach a fifth of the price at the top of the scale.
But timing the bottom is a game I would not advise anyone to play with a house. Markets turn quietly. By the time the indices confirm a recovery, the best properties have already gone, sellers have withdrawn their price reductions, and the buyer who waited is competing again. Sellers in a soft market also withdraw. The house you want may not be there in two years, and its owner may decide not to sell at all rather than accept a price they consider insulting.
I say this to clients often: I cannot tell you where the market will be in eighteen months, and nobody who claims otherwise should be believed. What I can tell you is whether a specific property, at a specific price, is good value against the evidence today. That is a question with an answer.
Who should buy now, and who should not?
Buy now if you have wanted a London base for some time, can absorb the purchase taxes without straining, and intend to hold for five years or more. Buy now if you are paying cash or borrowing against assets rather than income. Buy now if your currency has strengthened against sterling.
Be cautious if you may need to sell within three years. Stamp duty and the other costs of buying take time to recover, and a short holding period in a flat market is how people lose money on London property. Be cautious if a mortgage at today’s rates would leave you uncomfortable should rates rise further, or if your plans depend on the tax rules staying where they are.
Rates and figures correct at the time of writing; confirm the current position before relying on them.
How Arbitrage can help
We act only for buyers, and a buyer’s market is where that matters most. We sift the stock, including the 78% of our purchases that never reached the portals, benchmark every property against real comparable evidence, and negotiate from that evidence rather than from the asking price. We also coordinate with your private bank, tax advisers and solicitors so the purchase fits the rest of your balance sheet. Sometimes our advice is to wait; we give it when it is right, even though it costs us a fee.
Frequently asked questions
Are London property prices going to fall further?
Nobody knows, and forecasts from the large agencies have been wrong in both directions over the last decade. What is clear is that prime central London is already well below its 2014 peak in real terms, and that the downside from here is more limited than it was. Buy on the merits of the specific property, not on a forecast.
Is London still a good investment for overseas buyers?
For lifestyle, education, legal certainty and a currency that is cheap by historical standards, yes. The tax environment is less favourable than it was, so ownership structure, financing and the interaction with your home-country tax position need to be worked out before you offer, not after.
Should I buy with a mortgage or in cash?
In the current market cash, or lending secured against a wider portfolio, gives you a negotiating advantage that is worth real money. If you need a mortgage, get it agreed in principle before you start looking, and stress-test the payments against a higher rate than today’s.
How long should I plan to hold a London property?
Five years is a sensible minimum. Purchase taxes and costs for a second home can reach the high teens as a percentage of price for a non-resident buyer, and that takes time to recover in a market that is growing slowly. A ten-year view has historically been rewarded.